8 Comments
User's avatar
BBB's avatar

Vertical Enterprise software will likely not be replaced with AI but I think software business model / pricing model will evolve. Deterministic software with domain knowledge will be tough to break. As AI gets better and faster, the ARR will go down due to number of people using it or seats going down. The bigger question is whether the usage based or tokenized model will have the same economics as a cloud SAAS models.

The Macro & Equity Pulse's avatar

there is already a development from subscription based pricing to paying per prompt. Some companies have implemented it, some will do it in the near future. It makes sense because company headcounts will most likely decrease, hence the amount of subscriptions.

pavelcap's avatar

Nice work here, appreciate you compiling this. I don't really understand why the wipeout scenario assumes 2% organic growth for the next three years. Isn't there a more bearish scenario than that? VMS starts shedding seats in 2027 and 2028?

Don't get me wrong, I think $CSU is very compelling here. I just don't fully understand why there isn't a worse outcome in the short term.

Trevor Scott's avatar

Their clients work on multi year contracts. So unless they declare bankruptcy there won't be any massive changes in the short term.

Shahrukh Ahmad's avatar

Where can I see the full RBC report ??

Filippo's avatar

Great analysis!

Is the full report available somewhere? Thanks

Nate Strickler's avatar

Is this report publicly available?

Sterling Pine Capital's avatar

Pretty funny. Only bank-affiliated equity research analysts could put out a report like this.